Ukraine, Russia signs “mirror” deals … what does it mean??

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Ukraine, Russia sign “mirror” deals … what does it mean??

Ukraine and Russia signed “mirror” deals that will allow Kyiv to resume exports of seed through the black sea.

The deal will permit millions of tonnes of grain, currently trapped in Ukraine by the war, to be exported.

The world’s need for Ukrainian grain since Russia’s 24 February attack has left millions at risk of hunger.

However, Kyiv declined to sign a direct deal with Moscow, and warned “impulses” would be met with “an immediate military response”.

Both countries regarded the signing ceremony in Istanbul but did not sit at the same table. Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu marked Moscow’s deal first, followed by Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signing Kyiv’s identical accord.

The deal – which took two months to reach – is set to last for 120 days, with a coordination and monitoring center to be established in Istanbul, staffed by UN, Turkish, Russian, and Ukrainian officials. It can be renewed if both parties agree.

The blocking of Ukraine’s grain has caused a global food crisis with wheat-based goods like bread and pasta becoming more expensive and cooking oils and fertilizer also growing in price.

The US called on Russia to act quickly, with White House spokesman John Kirby saying it was necessary “to prevent the world’s most vulnerable from sliding into deeper insecurity and malnutrition”.

Mr. Shoigu told a news conference earlier the contract might allow “the solutions to start this process in the coming days”.

“I’m talking not only about beginning the export of agricultural goods from Ukrainian ports but clearly also work in this direction on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers from Russian ports,” he added.

According to delegates, under the terms of the deal:

Russia will not target ports while shipments are in transit
Ukrainian vessels will guide cargo ships through waters that have been mined
Turkey – supported by the United Nations – will inspect ships, to allay Russian fears of weapons smuggling
Russian exports of grain and fertilizer via the Black Sea will be facilitated.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the BBC’s Orla Guerin it was likely the most important thing he had done in his time running the global body.

“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea,” he told the audience gathered in Istanbul. “A beacon of hope.”

Just the prospect of unblocking more than 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain led to a 2% drop in wheat prices on Friday.

In his Friday night address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the country had about $10bn (£8.3bh) worth of grain to sell.

However, he also warned Moscow “could engage in provocations, attempts to discredit the Ukrainian and international efforts. But we trust the United Nations”, saying it was up to the UN to guarantee the deal.

But Mr. Guterres admitted to the BBC that the UN had no means of punishing Russia should it breach the deal – but added it would be “an absolutely unacceptable scandal and the whole international community would react in a very strong way”.

Mr. Shoigu had assured journalists after signing the deal that Russia had “taken on the obligations” under the deal, and they would “not take advantage of the fact that the ports will be earned and opened”.

Russia has always denied blockading Ukraine’s ports – it accuses Ukraine of laying abundance at sea and Western sanctions for slowing Russia’s own exports.

In a piece aimed at newspapers in Africa, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West and Ukraine of the “absolutely groundless” allegations. He praised the “balanced position of the Africans regarding what is happening in Ukraine and around it”.

Ukraine, however, says the Russian navy controls it from shipping grain and other exports and accuses Russian occupation forces of robbing grain from Ukrainian farms.

The grain export deal will also come as a big relief to the Horn of Africa, the BBC’s Anne Soy says from Nairobi, Kenya. The area is currently facing serious food shortages caused by drought and heightened by the Covid-19 pandemic, a rare locust invasion, and the war in Ukraine.

Samantha Power, the US action agency’s administrator, said the agreement was “an extremely important piece of a puzzle” in solving the region’s crisis.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who has played an essential role in negotiations – said he hoped the deal might be the first step towards bringing the war to an end.

“This joint step we are taking with Ukraine and Russia will hopefully revive the path to peace,” he said.

Mr. Guterres was less positive, saying: “At the present moment, I see no requirements for a peace process.”

Antonio Guterres said it was unprecedented to get two parties, locked in a bloody conflict, to agree to a deal of this kind.

President Erdogan went further, predicting it could set the scene for steps to end the war altogether.

But despite today’s hopeful signs, a wider agreement seems a rather remote possibility. In recent days, Russia has indicated that it might once again be willing to expand its war aims, while here in Kyiv, there is talk of when and where Ukraine might throw some kind of counter-offensive.

The arrival of sophisticated Western tools has given Ukraine a renewed sense of optimism. Yesterday, the head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service MI6, Richard Moore, indicated that Russia’s movement would soon run out of steam, giving Ukraine the opportunity to strike back. If there is to be a wider peace process, following the deal struck in Istanbul, it seems only President Erdogan is currently talking about it.